New forecasts lay out the details of upcoming 5G-Advanced deployments
As 5G deployment ramps down, the mobile industry is now looking forward to new phases of deployment with 5G-Advanced and 6G waves of investment. Mobile Experts released a new forecast this week, titled Macro and Massive MIMO Base Station Transceivers 2024, with a detailed view of the specific plans by mobile operators to deploy new wireless infrastructure.
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In particular, this report includes the frequency bands identified in the WRC-23 meeting during December 2023, as well as details of massive MIMO configurations to be used in various world regions to augment the capacity of the 5G network. The base station forecast focuses on the quantity of radio hardware to be shipped and the details of technical factors.
In the Base Station report, Mobile Experts has been able to identify specific bands and MIMO configurations that are in active development by the major network vendors. By staying close to component vendors and engineers in the R&D lab, Mobile Experts has been able to extract some very meaningful details about the architecture of next-generation base stations.
A second report was also released at the same time, titled RAN Revenue and CAPEX 2024, with detailed market share analysis of the top 30 suppliers in the Radio Access Network market and analysis of revenue trends. In particular, the RAN Revenue forecast focuses on the shift in revenue from dedicated hardware to software, and from telco networks to private networks over the next five years.
In the RAN Revenue report, clear trends are now visible that show the decline of the high-power base station market and its replacement by AI upgrades, small cells, mm-wave, and other new ways to enhance mobile capacity. New deployment in the FR3 frequency range will be unable to satisfy growing demand for mobile data, so the operators are turning to new approaches such as AI upgrades to enhance capacity. In addition, this forecast illustrates the shifting focus of 5G radio equipment from telco applications to enterprise private networks.
“Recent developments in the market have put us in a position to be able to predict base station deployment through 2029, and we lay it out in clear, insightful illustrations in these two reports,” commented Principal Analyst Joe Madden. “In particular, we highlight some bright spots in the market where new growth is happening.”
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“We’ve been tracking the mobile base station market since the 2G era,” continued Mr. Madden. “Some of the time-honored trends of the mobile industry, such as increasing spectral efficiency and wide new spectrum blocks, are changing and slowing down. That will make it necessary for operators to invest in new ways to squeeze capacity out of their networks, and pursue new sources of revenue in the private cellular market.”
Subscribers to Mobile Experts research will receive full details with each report:
- Full access to the 60-page Macro Base Station Transceivers 2024;
- 61 detailed charts and figures;
- The detailed Excel file with forecast data through 2029;
- Quarterly updates on base station, RU, and transceiver shipments;
- Quarterly Expert INSIGHT strategic reports; and
- Access to the analysts behind the reports.
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