Follow-up study conducted two years after initial research finds the “Mass Exodus” from VMware has yet to come — but the unwind is fully underway as “next renewal” price pressure still looms
CloudBolt Software, a recognized leader in cloud cost optimization and hybrid cloud management, released a new research report, “The Mass Exodus That Never Was: The Squeeze Is Just Beginning,” examining how enterprise IT leaders are responding two years after Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware.
The report, based on a January 2026 survey of 302 IT decision-makers at North American enterprises (1,000+ employees) – and a follow up to a 2024 study on the same topic – finds that while the predicted immediate stampede away from VMware did not materialize, organizations are actively unwinding dependence in a measured, workload-by-workload transition — shaped by pricing concerns, operational complexity, and mounting executive scrutiny.
“Two years ago, the market was dominated by knee-jerk speculation and worst-case projections,” said Mark Zembal, Chief Marketing Officer at CloudBolt. “This latest study separates noise and speculation from reality. The fear has cooled, but the pressure hasn’t — and most teams are now making practical moves to build leverage and optionality — even if for some that includes the realization that a portion of their estate never moves off VMware.”
Key findings
CloudBolt’s research highlights three numbers that capture the market’s shift from fear to sustained pressure to action:
- 2024 Fear: 73% expected VMware costs to more than double — yet only 5% of respondents to this most recent study have seen 100%+ increases.
- 2026 Reality: 88% are concerned about future price increases, and say it is shaping decisions now as the real squeeze begins.
- The Action: 86% report they are actively reducing their VMware footprint.
To put an even finer point on overall sentiment, one survey respondent commented, “The process of unwinding a decade of process dependencies is taking 18-24 months. This sideways abstraction is far more complex than a standard cloud lift-and-shift, leading to a significant loss of confidence in our ability to exit quickly enough to avoid the next renewal cliff.”
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Additional findings underscore why the “slow unwind” is becoming the dominant operating model:
- 56% say they have changed their VMware strategy two or more times since the acquisition, reflecting a market still recalibrating and experimenting in real time.
- 54% say they are staying with VMware while actively reducing dependence, signaling phased, partial transitions rather than immediate “full migration” exits.
- 72% of migrating workloads are heading to public cloud IaaS, with Hyper-V/Azure Stack (38%) and SaaS replacements (34%) also popular components of the mix.
“Enterprises aren’t just asking what they want to do — they’re confronting what they can execute safely,” said Rod Squires, CEO of CloudBolt. “The panic phase is over. Now it’s execution: reducing dependency, managing dual realities during transition, and building optionality before the next renewal decision tightens the window – and slams the budget.”
Why this matters now
Two years in, VMware strategy has become a priority business-level decision, not just a technical one. 41% of respondents report increased executive pressure since the acquisition, as organizations weigh cost volatility, vendor risk, and the operational burden of multi-platform environments. The result is a market shifting from panic to execution —often through phased, workload-by-workload transitions.
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