Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights point to divergent global growth in Q3 2023, with deterioration in advanced economies and improvement in emerging economies
Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business decisioning data and analytics, announced Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights, its inaugural quarterly report gauging the optimism levels of businesses around the world. The report provides a unique and comprehensive view into the thinking behind the operational and investment expectations of business leaders.
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“The declines in Global Business Optimism, Supply Chain Continuity, and Financial Confidence indices reflect the underlying stress in the global economy”
Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights is an amalgamation of five indices for 32 economies including the Global Business Optimism Index, Global Business Supply Chain Continuity Index, Global Business Financial Confidence Index, Global Business Investment Confidence Index, and Global Business ESG Index.
The Q3 2023 Global Business Optimism Insights report finds that the global economy is expected to grow, though slower than it did last quarter, due to the decline in advanced economies in contrast with the growth in emerging economies. Nordic businesses are the most pessimistic about their supply chain continuity, followed by U.S. based businesses. The Global Business Investment Confidence Index has improved the most for Russian businesses, yet it remains the lowest among the 32 economies.
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Additional key insights:
- The Global Business Optimism Index declined 1.5% in Q3 2023, compared with Q2 2023; it declined 2% for advanced economies and grew 0.4% for emerging economies, indicating that businesses exposed to advanced economies should exercise caution and revisit their growth strategies, such as enhancing client coverage across emerging economies. Economic growth will be asymmetric, posing risks and presenting pockets of opportunity. The impact of the economic cycle will be amplified by the depth of corporate linkages, including suppliers, vendors, and customers, spread across other regions.
- Moreover, businesses across Financial Services, Automotive, and Metals & Mining are least optimistic, whereas those across Utilities, Trade, and Hospitality are the most optimistic for growth.
- The Global Business Supply Chain Continuity Index declined 5.8% in Q3 2023, compared with Q2 2023, due to increased delivery time and cost. Businesses need to consider supply chain linkages to have a comprehensive view of their upstream and downstream risks. Given the economic uncertainty and regulations, it is advisable to review supply chain resilience and look for opportunities presented by reshoring, nearshoring, and friendshoring trends.
- Strengthening climate and emission regulations have lowered supply chain continuity for businesses in Mining & Metals, Construction, and Transportation, reiterating the importance of sustainability across all tiers of suppliers.
- The Global Business Financial Confidence Index declined marginally in Q3 2023 due to continued stress on balance sheets and unprecedented monetary tightening, suggesting that businesses must recognize that the current economic landscape necessitates a more proactive approach to credit risk mitigation. Having visibility into credit risk across the entire global portfolio can help inform treatment strategies and prioritize collections.
- Businesses in the Czech Republic, France, Mexico, Spain, and the U.S. are the least confident about their financial conditions, whereas those in Japan, South Korea, and Turkey are the most confident.
- The Global Business Investment Confidence Index increased slightly in Q3 2023 as businesses expect the capacity utilization rate to go up this year, indicating optimism around investment recovery through 2023.
- Technology and R&D investments top the list of expected capital expenditures, with nearly 40% of businesses anticipating 6-10% growth in investments for these categories, indicating that businesses exposed to these sectors can leverage underlying growth opportunities.
- The Global Business ESG Index for continental Europe lags the U.S. and Asia due to differing energy security interests and approaches to renewable energy within the region.
“The declines in Global Business Optimism, Supply Chain Continuity, and Financial Confidence indices reflect the underlying stress in the global economy,” said Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet. “While the unprecedented monetary tightening has helped control inflation in some countries, it has also introduced the specter of an economic slowdown and stress in the balance sheets of businesses. However, the global economy has not fared as badly as feared, as most businesses anticipate a 2% to 6% growth in their investment levels across technology, real estate, product development, and sustainability initiatives, offering hope for improvement in economic conditions.”
Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights were created by synthesizing findings from a survey of approximately 10,000 businesses across 32 economies, along with insights from Dun & Bradstreet’s proprietary data and economic expertise. The indices range from 0 to 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an improvement and below 50 a deterioration.
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